In the marquee college basketball game of the night, the 16-3 Purdue Boilermakers take on the 14-5 Iowa Hawkeyes at 9:00 PM EST. Purdue emerged victorious 77-70 in their first matchup against the Hawkeyes and look to complete a regular season sweep of their conference rival.
WynnBET has the Boilermakers as 2.5-point favorites and -140 on the moneyline (bet $14 to win $10) while the over-under is set at 154.
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Here is how we’re betting this game:
Purdue vs Iowa Prediction
There are a lot of reasons to love the over in this game.
The Boilermakers have the #1 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, per Bart Torvik, while Iowa ranks 8th. Purdue will be able to score on the inside, with the 9th-best 2-point shooting percentage, and on the outside, with the 3rd-highest 3-point shooting percentage. They’ll have second-chance opportunities behind the 10th-best offensive rebounding rate, and should have plenty of free-throw attempts with the 30th-best offensive free throw rate.
On the other end, the Hawkeyes will protect the basketball with the 3rd-lowest offensive turnover rate in the country despite playing at the 41st-fastest tempo. They’ll score inside behind their 41st-ranked 2-point shooting percentage and after going just 5/21 in their first matchup with the Boilermakers, should expect positive regression from beyond the arc.
Iowa will have All-American forward Keegan Murray in this one too after he missed the first contest. Responsible for 22.8 points per game, he’s the engine that makes Iowa’s offense go.
Even with Murray not playing, Iowa’s shooting woes and both teams combining to miss 17 free throws, the first game had 147 points scored. Six of the last eight Purdue games have gone over and the over is 10-2-1 in Iowa home games this year.
Given all these factors, I believe the total is set too low. Give me the over 154 (-110) as my best bet. It’s always fun cheering for buckets, especially between two of the best offensive teams in America.
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