Purdue vs Iowa Odds: Line, Spread, Over/Under
In a rematch of a game Purdue won 77-70 in early December, the 16-3 Boilermakers travel to Iowa to take on the 14-5 Hawkeyes at 9:00 PM EST.
This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting games of the college basketball season, with two incredible offenses and huge Big Ten conference ramifications. There are a few things we can learn from their first game that will help us find value in this marquee matchup.
Purdue vs Iowa Prediction
First, All-American forward Keegan Murray did not suit up for Iowa in that December contest. He’s averaging 22.8 points per game, ranking third in all of college basketball. He was clearly missed, as Iowa scored well below their season average of just over 83 points. These teams should be at full strength this time though. Both Murray and Purdue star guard Jaden Ivey, who missed Sunday’s game with an injury, will play today.
Both teams should be able to score on each other. Purdue has the 9th-highest 2-point shooting percentage and 3rd-highest 3-point shooting percentage while Iowa is 156th in 2-point defense and 91st in 3-point defense. The Boilermakers should have plenty of second-chance opportunities as well, with the 8th-best offensive rebounding rate compared to Iowa’s 252nd-ranked defensive rebounding rate. Purdue forward Trevion Williams racked up 18 rebounds in the first game and you can expect more of the same tonight.
On the other end, Iowa’s 41st-ranked 2-point shooting percentage should be able to score on Purdue’s 103rd-ranked 2-point defense. And after shooting just 5/21 from beyond the arc in December, Iowa should have better success against a Boilermaker defense that ranks 150th in three-point shooting percentage. The Hawkeyes will be able to protect the ball, as their 3rd-lowest offensive turnover rate in the nation matches up well with Purdue’s 336th-ranked defensive turnover rate.
Between two offenses that can score at will, I think this total is too low. 147 points were scored in the first matchup despite Murray’s absence, Iowa’s poor shooting and the teams combining to miss 17 free throws. Purdue games have gone over the total in six of their last eight, and the over is 10-2-1 in Iowa’s home games this year.
Give me the over 154 as my best bet today as we see two top-10 offenses showcase their firepower.
What Channel is the Purdue Game On?
Purdue vs Iowa will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1 at 9:00 PM EST.