Fresh off a thrilling 81-78 win over Ohio State punctuated by an incredible buzzer-beater by Jaden Ivey, the 18-3 #4 Purdue Boilermakers take on the 11-7 Minnesota Gophers at 7:00 PM EST tonight. WynnBET has the Boilermakers as 10.5-point favorites and -600 on the moneyline (bet $60 to win $10) while the over-under is 140.
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Here’s how we’re betting this matchup:
Purdue vs Minnesota Prediction
Another day, another dollar, another Purdue over bet. The over is 7-2 in the Boilermakers’ last nine games as the offense has exploded with Ivey’s stellar play and excellent shooting. They’ve scored at least 80 points in five of their last six behind the 7th-best 2-point shooting percentage and 2nd-best 3-point percentage in the country.
They’ll have a gigantic advantage on the boards and will have plenty of second-chance opportunities with the 6th-highest offensive rebounding rate in the nation. Minnesota is a terrible rebounding team, ranking 354th in offensive rebounding rate and 203rd in defensive rebounding rate.
But the Gophers are a good shooting team and make 35.4% of their 3-point shots, good for 79th nationally. This is where Purdue can be beat. They rank 133rd in defensive 3-point percentage and allow teams to get open looks on the perimeter.
Minnesota wants to play at a slow pace but I expect Purdue to jump out to an early lead and force the Gophers to fire away from deep to keep up. The over is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last six contests and 8-2-1 when they’re an underdog, so there’s a history of them shooting a lot to try to keep games close.
Behind Purdue’s incredible offense, I’m thrilled to take the over 140 (-110) but I also like the spread at Purdue -10.5 (-110). The Gophers are just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight home games and I don’t see how they can stop Purdue from scoring 80+ with such a significant rebounding advantage.
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