Purdue Betting Trend
I wrote on Thursday how recent trends and stats pointed to big value on the under in the Purdue vs. Illinois game and we cashed. I’ll be going back to the under well today as the Boilermakers host the 9-7 Northwestern Wildcats at 1:00 PM EST. WynnBET has Purdue as a 13-point favorite (-110) today and -975 on the moneyline ($97.5 to win $10). The over/under is set at 149.
A lot of the same logic I used Thursday holds true here. Purdue has an elite offense, but they play slowly, don’t turn the ball over or force turnovers, don’t allow second-chance points and don’t allow their opponents to shoot free throws.
Today they’ll play a Northwestern team that protects the ball as well as anyone in the country with the 4th-best offensive turnover rate, per Bart Torvik. But they struggle to shoot, ranking 235th nationally in 2-point shooting and 106th in 3-point shooting. The Wildcats, with the 314th-ranked free throw rate, don’t get freebies either and won’t get many offensive rebounds against a stout Purdue frontcourt.
After a double-overtime thriller against Illinois and a hard-fought loss at Indiana, I expect Purdue to have tired legs and struggle to shoot from deep. Northwestern’s strength is their 25th-ranked 2-point defense, so with those two factors in play I anticipate Purdue to be held under their season average of 85 points per game.
Given their tired legs, Purdue will be content to slow the game down against the Wildcats and execute their offensive sets to get good looks. Northwestern plays at just the 137th-fastest tempo in the nation, so they won’t be looking to speed the game up either.
Northwestern hasn’t played a game with a total this high in their last 20 matchups and with a 13-point spread, oddsmakers expect Purdue to roll in this one. I anticipate a lower-scoring game so Purdue can get some well-earned rest and am making the under 149.0 my best bet as Purdue looks to get back on track against an inferior opponent.