The #4 ranked Purdue Boilermakers are one of the darlings of this college basketball season, flying up the rankings behind one of the best offenses in the country. But in tonight’s marquee matchup against Indiana, which is drawing attention on both sides of the spread, bettors would be wise to instead look at the value on the over/under (140.5 at WynnBET).
There’s a simple formula for betting an over/under in college basketball. Do you play at a fast pace? Do you turn the ball over or force turnovers to create fast-break points? Do you allow or create second-chance points? Do you allow or shoot a lot of free-throw attempts? Let’s take a look at Purdue’s stats to find out why the under is a smart play.
Despite having the #1 ranked offensive efficiency in the country per Bart Torvik, the Boilermakers play slowly. They’re 196th nationally in adjusted tempo. Check.
What about turnovers? Purdue is 57th in offensive turnover rate but just 321st in defensive turnover rate. So they protect the ball but allow their opponent to protect it as well. Check.
Second-chance points? Purdue is 22nd in defensive rebounding rate, so their opponents do not have many opportunities to extend possessions. Check.
Free-throws? Purdue is 7th in all of college basketball in defensive free-throw rate, so they don’t foul much either. Check.
Finally, Purdue has a history of playing to the under on the road. They’re 3-7 to the under in their last 10 games on the road. This makes sense. One of the best ways to silence an opposing crowd is to make the game a bit boring. Long, drawn-out possessions take the energy out of a crowd. Playing at one of the premier arenas in America in Assembly Hall, I expect Purdue to try their best to eliminate fan noise.
With season-long stats that support a slower game with few fast-break or second-chance points and a history of playing to the under on the road, the formula is there for an under 140.5 play tonight in Purdue’s matchup at Indiana at 7:00 PM EST.