Purdue Gets Fifith "Luckiest" Draw

The Boiling Point: According to a math whiz, the Boilers got the fifth luckiest draw in the NCAA Tournament.

I won’t lie, parts of the New York Times column that talks about determining which teams got lucky and unlucky draws in the NCAA Tourmament were a bit out of my league. It talks about regression analysis and complex formulas, but that doesn’t mean I didn’t get the point.

Based on the analysis of the bracket, which compares merit – or Sagarin’s ratings – and talent – or Ken Pomeroy ratings – then determines expected success in the tourney, Purdue got the fifth-luckiest draw. The reason is because the difference between its projected success based on the actual draw and a hypothetical draw was high. Which means Purdue is expected to go farther in the actual bracket than one made based on merit. Here’s a look at the chart for the luckiest draws.

Of course, Florida was the luckiest team because it was overseeded as a No. 2. Pittsburgh makes the list because based on many of the numbers, the Panthers are in the easiest of the four regions.

Now, for the unlucky teams.

At the top of the list for the unlucky ones was UNLV with two Big Ten teams, Ohio State and Wisconsin, No. 2 and 3. The reason for the Buckeyes being there is based solely on the strength of its opponents even though it go the No. 1 overall seed. Here’s a look at that chart.

As the first weekend of games trickle in, it will be interesting to see if these lucky or unlucky draws have anything to do with the outcomes.